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'Russian Athletes Victims of US Hybrid War', Journo Says as CAS Hears Russian Appeal on Football Ban_我的网站

一 |     　　尽管美国财政部本周三突然宣布加大长期国债的回购规模，试图以“借短还长”的方式压低长期国债收益率，但效果仅持续了一天，美国30年期国债收益率再度上行至5.249%，逼近前期新高。    The CAS held the first of two planned hearings of the Football Union of Russia and club teams’ appeal of a FIFA/UEFA ban from UEFA competition on Tuesday.,Tuesday’s hearing, taking place in Lausanne, Switzerland, will be followed by a second hearing next Monday by four Russian clubs, including Zenit St. Petersburg, the reigning Russian Premier League champions, challenging their exclusion from UEFA competition.,UEFA ruled in May to bar Russian football clubs from all tournaments, including men’s teams and the women’s team for the FIFA Women’s World Cup 2023. At least for the remainder of the current season, Russian teams have been banned from the UEFA Champions League, Europa League, Europa Conference League, Women’s Champions League, and Youth League. The Russian bid to host the Euro 2028 and/or Euro 2032 events has also been preemptively rejected.,In arbitration filed in March, the Football Union of Russia demanded the immediate reinstatement of all teams for competition, arguing the “irreparable harm” that their exclusion would have on tournaments, including the FIFA World Cup, potential sponsorship losses, loss of experience, and loss of opportunity to compete against opponents of high standard. The Russian side also stressed that for players 30 years old or older, the 2022 World Cup constituted “the last chance of their career to play such a tournament.”,Former Formula One Boss Ecclestone Backs Putin Over Conflict With Ukraine30 June, 12:39 GMT,The football union argued that the International Olympic Committee resolution issued in February demanding that Russian athletes and officials be barred from international competition on which FIFA and UEFA based their decisions was “generic,” “does not refer to any legal provision and is not binding upon FIFA,” and that sporting authorities were acting in a “discriminatory” manner by barring Russian players.,FIFA argued that Russian teams’ presence or absence in the World Cup and the Women’s World Cup was “not guaranteed,” and dismissed the fact that some players would miss out on their last chance for their World Cup play as “irrelevant.” Furthermore, the association argued that “pursuant to CAS jurisprudence, private sports associations have a wide autonomy and margin of discretion when deciding on matters related to the competitions which they organize.” The CAS sided with FIFA and UEFA and rejected Russia’s cases in April, prompting FUR to appeal.,US Hybrid War Against Russia,Rick Sterling, a California-based investigative journalist who has written extensively on doping in sports, said he finds it unlikely that the CAS will rule in Russia's favor despite its case's "excellent arguments," among them the idea that you don't punish athletes for the actions of their nations.,"The US invaded Iraq and there was no denunciation let alone a punishment of athletes. The US, France and others overthrew the Libyan government, leaving a destroyed state, without criticism from the IOC or FIFA. So why are the Russian athletes being punished? One reason is because of built-in bias and prejudice. The IOC and FIFA are dominated by the West. It is very damaging that the IOC issued a recommendation that Russian athletes be discriminated against. This is a violation of the Olympic Charter against national discrimination," Sterling says.,"The US is openly and actively working to undermine Russia's image abroad, including in sports. They probably pre-coordinated the response to the special operation. Russian athletes are victims of the US hybrid war against Russia, as are Ukrainians and Russians," the journalist believes.,Football isn’t the only sport to have suffered from politicized bans instituted by world and national sporting authorities in the wake of the escalation of the Ukraine crisis, with tennis, basketball, hockey, skating and skiing competitions also affected. The arbitrary nature of the prohibitions has been exemplified by their random nature, with Russian athletes barred from FIFA play, for example, but allowed to compete in the 2022 Winter Paralympics, and at the US Open tennis tournament.,Top Tennis Stars in Favour of Penalising Wimbledon Over Ban on Russian Players, Report Says11 May, 11:40 GMT,The bans affecting Russia’s football players are just the latest instance of discrimination against the country’s athletes by international sporting bodies in recent years. In 2020, the CAS stripped Russia of its right to use its name, flag, and anthem at the Olympics and world championship events for two years, largely on the basis of the testimony of Grigory Rodchenkov, the former director of the Russian Anti-Doping Center laboratory-turned-informant to the World Anti-Doping who fled to the United States and testified about an alleged Russian “state-run doping program.” Russian officials denied the allegations and accused Rodchenkov of altering doping probe data of Russian athletes to fit the required narrative.。
　　美国国债曾被国际资本视为安全级别最高的投资品，各国主权基金争相配置，30年期国债收益率在2020年3月曾到过0.7%。

二 | 美国长期国债收益率走高被视为对该国财政状况的预警，而黄金与美国长债收益率同步走高，更显示美元遭遇了信任危机侵蚀。　　美债拉响警报，美国长期国债收益率居高不下，意味着更昂贵的资金成本。站在全球的角度看，地缘冲突、逆全球化等趋势外加更昂贵的资金成本，意味着全球进入高成本生产时代，在此压力之下，哪个经济体拥有庞大的生产规模和极致的成本控制能力，哪个经济体的货币和资产就处于升值状态。人民币对美元中间价已经升至三年半以来新高，这本身就是先知先觉资金的投票。

三 | 　　与美元面临的信任危机和美元资产泡沫有着完全不同的境况，人民币正在全球贸易结算和外汇储备中占据越来越大的份额，我国10年期国债收益率水平仅为1.68%，A股制造业属性突出且整体估值依然处于低位。　　币值的坚挺、估值低企外加政策回旋空间大，决定了A股未来的行情将独立于美债风暴。　　全球进入高成本生产时代　　本周，美国30年期国债收益率突破5.3%关口，这并非经济上行带来的收益率上行，而是因为美国联邦债务已经抵达40万亿美元的规模，美元信任危机裂痕增大，全球主要央行配置意愿降低，对利率更敏感的私人资本成为主要买方，美国国债必须给出更高的收益率才能吸引资金购买。　　美国国债曾被国际资本视为安全级别最高的投资品，各国主权基金的争先配置导致其长期收益率极低，比如在新冠疫情的2020年，美国30年期国债的中标收益率最低仅为1.32%。

四 | 但上周美国财政部拍卖的30年期美债标得收益率高达5.216%，超过2007年8月中旬次贷爆发前夜时的水平。　　一国长期国债收益率的走高被视为该国财政状况的预警。2007年8月中旬，美国次贷危机爆发前夜，美国30年期国债得标收益率达到5.059%。不过，在次贷危机前，美国联邦债务仅有5万亿美元，每年要支付的净利息支出也仅有2380亿元。但经过次贷危机救市和疫情期间大规模的财政投放，目前美国联邦债务已经高达40万亿美元。　　目前，美国国债净利息支出已经占据了财政收入的五分之一，利息开支自我驱动赤字的负向循环。美国赫尔辛基大学的学者奥马斯·马列宁近期表示，当再融资利率持续高于GDP的增速，叠加持续性的基础财政赤字，债务占GDP的比重将自动抬升。政治博弈导致财政开支难以削减，那就只剩下债务货币化一条路，重新大规模购债压低收益率，但长期的代价是美元购买力被稀释，美元的信任危机加剧。

五 | 　　与此同时，AI资本开支的加剧，也加大了私人企业与美债对资金的竞争性需求。美国财政部一年拍卖国债所募资总额接近12万亿美元，其中包括国债的到期滚续和弥补财政赤字，这就意味着每个月都要吸纳近万亿美元规模的资金。而AI资本开支加剧，科技巨头投放海量的AI基建相关的投资级信用债，它们与美国长期国债在同一个全球长期资本池中竞争投资者的资金，如谷歌今年8月发行的澳洲袋鼠债，合计募资55亿澳元，20年期利率6.98%。　　尽管短期来说，美债危机可以被掩盖，但其长期的脆弱性不容忽视。正如奥马斯·马列宁所说，储备货币的身份只能争取时间，却抹不掉基础的算术约束，如今的脆弱点已经彻底转移至公共债务的再融资链条。　　人民币资产将成为避风港　　全球资金成本抬升、美元贬值带来通胀、地缘冲突所带来的大宗商品价格上升和物流成本上升，同时叠加逆全球化带来的关税成本和隐形合规成本上升，意味着全球进入了高成本生产时代。在全球成本普遍提升的背景下，中国反而体现出全产业链对冲成本的独特优势：　　一是完整制造业集群，带来极致的成本控制能力。如在贵州瓮安－福泉的千亿级磷化工产业园，矿山不靠卡车外运矿石，封闭的矿浆管线直接将矿浆输送至园区萃取车间，产业园区铺设数十公里矿浆输送管网，矿产资源就地转化；园区内部企业之间的原料“隔墙供应”，A工厂的副产品就是B工厂的原料，吃干榨尽，耦合共生；园区集中布局大型污水处理系统，危废中转堆场等，每家企业不用再独立建设全套末端处置设施，统一执行总磷的严苛排放值……　　二是统一的大市场，带来规模效应和产品快速迭代升级。今年以来，越来越多外资企业把研发环节放在中国，实现“在中国创新、为全球所用”。商务部统计显示，今年上半年，我国高技术产业实际使用外资1703.3亿元人民币，同比增长33.2%，占全国实际使用外资的42.4%，较去年同期提升12.2个百分点。其中，研发与设计服务、电子及通信设备制造业、计算机及办公设备制造业，实际使用外资分别增长82%、52%、29.2%。

六 | 中国的出口贸易由以劳动密集型为主转向新能源汽车、锂电池、光伏、算力硬件等高附加值品类，对成本上涨的敏感度也得以下降。　　三是我国贸易流向的多元化也增强了我国经济的韧性。

七 | 从贸易链接的广度看，我国已经是160多个国家和地区的主要贸易伙伴。

八 | 广泛的双向经贸往来，使得资源进口品来源实现分散，降低原材料受制于单一供给方的风险，同时出口市场的多元化，也降低了对欧美市场的单一依赖，支撑了贸易顺差，也提升了人民币资产的吸引力。　　当美债及美元资产的脆弱性暴露时，A股短期也会受到情绪的感染，但从中长期来说，中国资产理应独立于这场因为美元信任危机而引发的全球股债汇风暴。中国庞大的制造产能、创纪录的上万亿美元的货物贸易顺差、极致的成本控制能力和产品迭代能力、统一的国内大市场以及稳定的治理能力等，都是人民币资产被信赖的基础。

九 | 　　东财图解·加点干货（文章来源：券商中国）。

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